Puskas FC 1-0 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
13%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 25% vs market 20.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
-0.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.85/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/2.02
-3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 73%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
26.8 Crosses 16.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puskas FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Debrecen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
3.23 xG 0.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
382 Passes 348
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Puskas FC Puskas FC 4-1 HT 2-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
24.02.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
28.10.2023 Puskas FC Puskas FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
14.04.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 0-1 HT 0-0 Puskas FC Puskas FC MAC
02.03.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-3 HT 1-2 Puskas FC Puskas FC MACK
12.11.2022 Puskas FC Puskas FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puskas FC
1-0
AWAY Debrecen
1.47 xG 0.77
77% Ball Possession 23%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
531 Passes 126
87% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puskas FC vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puskas FC edged past Debrecen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Puskas FC as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Puskas FC had 77% of the ball to Debrecen's 23%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.47 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puskas FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Puskas FC and 0.83 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of Puskas FC vs Debrecen?

Puskas FC 1-0 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puskas FC vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puskas FC win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Puskas FC 57%, draw 24%, Debrecen 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puskas FC), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puskas FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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