Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

Deportivo La Coruna
1-1 HT 0-1
Almeria
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.97
Over
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
32%
3.58
2-3
38%
1.8
4-5
21%
3.2
6+
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.58 — our 32% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.62
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
15%
4.86
X/2
10%
8.11
X/X
16%
4.8
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
8%
5.85
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo La Coruna v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Coruna EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.38/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.34
-25% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.5 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1

Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Almeria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 1.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
370 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.02.2025 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 HT 3-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
17.11.2024 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2
07.03.2020 Almeria Almeria 4-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2
06.10.2019 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
22.03.2019 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
19.11.2018 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna İS2

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Coruna
1-1
AWAY Almeria
0.93 xG 0.73
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
384 Passes 461
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Coruna and Almeria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo La Coruna at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo La Coruna had 47% of the ball to Almeria's 53%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.93 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria?

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Coruna vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Coruna win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Coruna 47%, draw 29%, Almeria 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Coruna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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