Middelfart 1-2 Hillerod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 4 Oct 2025

Middelfart
1-2 HT 1-1
Hillerod
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2025/2026

Middelfart vs Hillerod Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
46%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.27
2-3 Goals
47%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.29
6+ Goals
8%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.35
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
10%
13.9
X/1
5%
6.23
X/2
19%
5.09
X/X
12%
4.98
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
21%
3.2
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
34%
-8.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.6pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middelfart v Hillerod — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middelfart EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Hillerod EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -9%
1.85/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.05
+39% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
11.0 Crosses 19.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Middelfart vs Hillerod Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middelfart
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Hillerod
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.40 xG 1.26
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
309 Passes 511
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.07.2025 Hillerod Hillerod 2-1 HT 1-1 Middelfart Middelfart DAN1
09.04.2022 Hillerod Hillerod 2-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
25.09.2021 Middelfart Middelfart 1-3 HT 1-3 Hillerod Hillerod DAN2

Middelfart 1-2 Hillerod — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middelfart
1-2
AWAY Hillerod
0.52 xG 1.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
263 Passes 214
64% Pass Accuracy 60%
23 Box Touches 23
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Middelfart vs Hillerod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod edged past Middelfart 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hillerod as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Middelfart had 54% of the ball to Hillerod's 46%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.52 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hillerod led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Middelfart and 2.33 for Hillerod.

What was the final score of Middelfart vs Hillerod?

Middelfart 1-2 Hillerod in the Denmark 1st Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middelfart vs Hillerod?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Middelfart 25%, draw 29%, Hillerod 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hillerod), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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