Kolding IF 2-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.63
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 30% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.84
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
13%
4.97
X/2
9%
7.14
X/X
8%
5.09
2/1
7%
23.55
2/2
13%
4.96
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kolding IF EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.36/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.94
-18% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.2 Crosses 13.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kolding IF
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.39 xG 0.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
384 Passes 290
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-2 HT 0-2 Kolding IF Kolding IF DAN1
10.05.2025 Kolding IF Kolding IF 2-1 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
06.04.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 0-0 Kolding IF Kolding IF DAN1
22.02.2025 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-1 HT 0-1 Kolding IF Kolding IF DAN1
21.08.2024 Kolding IF Kolding IF 1-2 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
17.06.2023 Kolding IF Kolding IF 1-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kolding IF
2-1
AWAY Esbjerg
2.41 xG 0.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
382 Passes 383
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kolding IF vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kolding IF squeezed past Esbjerg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kolding IF as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kolding IF had 50% of the ball to Esbjerg's 50%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.41 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kolding IF's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kolding IF had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kolding IF and 1.00 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Kolding IF vs Esbjerg?

Kolding IF 2-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kolding IF vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kolding IF win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kolding IF 47%, draw 24%, Esbjerg 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kolding IF) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kolding IF) ✗ Under 2.5
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