Hwaseong 0-1 Incheon United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Challenge, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
52%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.73
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
15%
3.87
6+ Goals
8%
17.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 35% vs market 29.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
52%
Away Win
56%
-3.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hwaseong EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Incheon United EU Bookmakers 60%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.57/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.15
-44% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -11%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
251 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.6 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hwaseong
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Incheon United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
276 Passes 446
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.06.2025 Incheon United Incheon United 2-0 HT 1-0 Hwaseong Hwaseong GKOR2
05.04.2025 Hwaseong Hwaseong 0-1 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hwaseong
0-1
AWAY Incheon United
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
467 Passes 255
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hwaseong vs Incheon United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Incheon United squeezed past Hwaseong 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Incheon United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hwaseong had 62% of the ball to Incheon United's 38%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Incheon United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Hwaseong and 1.50 for Incheon United.

What was the final score of Hwaseong vs Incheon United?

Hwaseong 0-1 Incheon United in the South Kore - K League Challenge on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hwaseong vs Incheon United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Incheon United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hwaseong 21%, draw 27%, Incheon United 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Incheon United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Incheon United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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