Super Nova 1-1 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.46
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
54%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.4pp
54%
Away Win
49%
+5.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 54%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.13/2.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.26
-40% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
218 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
19.2 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
299 Passes 350
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
21.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
01.10.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.07.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
18.05.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-2 HT 2-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
1-1
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.25 xG 0.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 13
329 Passes 264
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
38 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Super Nova vs FS Jelgava
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Super Nova and FS Jelgava shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the Latvia - Virsliga on 4 Oct 2025. Half-time: 0-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 55%.

On the day, Super Nova had 53% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 47%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.25 to 0.65.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava lead the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Super Nova and 1.33 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?

Super Nova 1-1 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated an FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 24%, draw 22%, FS Jelgava 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FS Jelgava), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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