Grobina 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+6.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 26%
-49% / -49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
0.89/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.61
-50% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.3 Crosses 22.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.75 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 Passes 300
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
21.07.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
21.05.2025 Grobina Grobina 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
05.04.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
28.09.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-2 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
08.07.2024 Grobina Grobina 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
16.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-0
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.21 xG 0.96
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
203 Passes 283
67% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Grobina vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina edged past FK Tukums 2000 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Grobina as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grobina had 42% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.21 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Grobina and 1.33 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Grobina vs FK Tukums 2000?

Grobina 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grobina win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Grobina 47%, draw 24%, FK Tukums 2000 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grobina) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grobina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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