Zamalek 1-1 Ghazl El Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.53
No
62%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.12
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
5.29
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
60%
-1.0pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+4.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
36%
+2.3pp
62%
BTTS No
64%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zamalek EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.36/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.40
-9% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
323 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 71%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
19.4 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zamalek
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.99 xG 0.53
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
424 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2024 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 0-4 HT 0-2 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
27.06.2023 Zamalek Zamalek 2-0 HT 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
24.01.2023 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1 HT 2-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
16.07.2022 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 HT 0-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
25.12.2021 Zamalek Zamalek 4-0 HT 2-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
07.08.2021 Zamalek Zamalek 3-0 HT 3-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zamalek
1-1
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
1.66 xG 0.91
66% Ball Possession 34%
24 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
391 Passes 166
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Box Touches 6
38 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zamalek vs Ghazl El Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zamalek and Ghazl El Mehalla shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Zamalek at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Zamalek had 66% of the ball to Ghazl El Mehalla's 34%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 1.66 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zamalek had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Zamalek and 0.33 for Ghazl El Mehalla.

What was the final score of Zamalek vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Zamalek 1-1 Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zamalek vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zamalek win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Zamalek 59%, draw 22%, Ghazl El Mehalla 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Zamalek), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zamalek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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