Cerro Porteno 2-0 Deportivo Recoleta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.75
No
43%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-4.1pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.75/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.11
-2% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
39.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
34.0 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
27.07.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-3 HT 0-3 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
29.04.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
16.02.2025 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
2-0
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno got the better of Deportivo Recoleta 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 59% of the ball to Deportivo Recoleta's 41%, shots finished 14-3.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.00 for Deportivo Recoleta.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Cerro Porteno 2-0 Deportivo Recoleta in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 59%, draw 23%, Deportivo Recoleta 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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