Portimonense 1-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.86
Over
49%
1.87
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.74
No
49%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.08
2-3
42%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.46
6+
9%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Portimonense The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria The Market 46%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.30 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.50
1.67 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 0.95
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Great
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.2 Crosses 22.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.77 xG 2.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
353 Passes 296
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2025 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
17.08.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-3 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
21.11.2020 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POK
17.04.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
29.11.2010 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
28.11.2010 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.13 xG 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
185 Passes 243
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Portimonense vs Uniao De Leiria
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Portimonense and Uniao De Leiria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. The 1-0 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. The market went further still — the BTTS-yes price closed at 1.74, about 57%.

Under the surface, Uniao De Leiria saw more of the ball, 56% to 44%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.13 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria led the recent series with 5 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Portimonense against 1.50 for Uniao De Leiria.

Portimonense vs Uniao De Leiria Result & Final Score

Portimonense 1-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Portimonense vs Uniao De Leiria Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 34%, draw 29%, Uniao De Leiria 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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