Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.75
Over
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.84
2-3
37%
1.72
4-5
17%
3.69
6+
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.84 — our 38% vs market 27.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-10.4pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria The Market 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense The Market 27%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
1.39/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.41
+19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.9 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Portimonense
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
2.30 xG 0.82
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
259 Passes 422
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
17.08.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 0-3 HT 0-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
21.11.2020 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POK
17.04.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
29.11.2010 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
28.11.2010 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-0
AWAY Portimonense
1.84 xG 0.72
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
332 Passes 284
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria edged past Portimonense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 53% of the ball to Portimonense's 47%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 1.84 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 0.60 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Portimonense?

Uniao De Leiria 1-0 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 47%, draw 29%, Portimonense 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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