Penafiel 1-1 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.74
Over
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.75
2-3
40%
1.72
4-5
21%
3.8
6+
10%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
32%
+3.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela The Market 45%
+17% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.30/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.21
+8% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.2 Crosses 19.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Vizela
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.75 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
161 Passes 320
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Vizela Vizela 1-2 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.10.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 3-3 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POK
16.05.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR2
16.01.2021 Vizela Vizela 3-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
20.11.2016 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Vizela
0.40 xG 2.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
152 Passes 360
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Vizela couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Penafiel had 38% of the ball to Vizela's 62%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 0.40 to 2.94.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Penafiel and 1.80 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Vizela?

Penafiel 1-1 Vizela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 34%, draw 28%, Vizela 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vizela) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vizela) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
26 Jan 2025
17:00 Mafra vs UD Oliveirense Analysis →
18:30 Porto II vs Tondela Analysis →
18:30 Uniao De Leiria vs Portimonense Analysis →