Vizela 1-2 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 18 Aug 2024

Vizela
1-2 HT 0-1
Penafiel
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Vizela vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vizela v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 26%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.10/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.30
+17% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.5 Crosses 19.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Vizela vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 0.48
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
316 Passes 194
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
15.10.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 3-3 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POK
16.05.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR2
16.01.2021 Vizela Vizela 3-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
20.11.2016 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POK

Vizela 1-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
1-2
AWAY Penafiel
1.68 xG 1.28
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 4
328 Passes 94
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
42 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Vizela 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vizela at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vizela had 68% of the ball to Penafiel's 32%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.68 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vizela had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vizela and 1.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Penafiel?

Vizela 1-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vizela 45%, draw 25%, Penafiel 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vizela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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