Paços De Ferreira 1-2 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
42%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.62
Over 2.5
53%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.53
6+ Goals
13%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
42%
Away Win
38%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
58%
-10.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
42%
+10.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 42%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.10/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.04
-20% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +73%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.8 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Maritimo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.10 xG 0.93
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
348 Passes 277
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
02.09.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
15.04.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 3-1 HT 2-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
28.10.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-1 HT 0-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
09.04.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 2-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
28.11.2021 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1-2
AWAY Maritimo
1.98 xG 2.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 7
233 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo nicked a narrow win over Paços De Ferreira 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 46% of the ball to Maritimo's 54%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 1.98 to 2.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.67 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo?

Paços De Ferreira 1-2 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 33%, draw 25%, Maritimo 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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