Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Nov 2024

Atletico Bucaramanga
2-3
Independiente Medellin
📅04/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.09
No
64%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
-0.0pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.3pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
44%
-8.2pp
64%
BTTS No
56%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Bucaramanga v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
0.93/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.15
-9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
15.1 Crosses 13.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
261 Passes 340
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.04.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
26.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
16.04.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-2 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
24.04.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3 HT 2-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
04.10.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL

Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Bucaramanga
2-3
AWAY Independiente Medellin
30% Ball Possession 70%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
152 Passes 403
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin nicked a narrow win over Atletico Bucaramanga 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Bucaramanga at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Bucaramanga had 30% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 70%, shots finished 9-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Bucaramanga and 1.67 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Bucaramanga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Bucaramanga 41%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Bucaramanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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