Deportivo La Guaira 0-1 Carabobo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Carabobo EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.26/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.13
-1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
18.0 Crosses 16.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Carabobo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.79 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
336 Passes 378
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2024 Carabobo Carabobo 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
20.03.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 0-0 HT 0-0 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
16.07.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 HT 1-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
30.04.2023 Carabobo Carabobo 3-2 HT 2-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
04.07.2022 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 3-2 HT 2-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
23.05.2022 Carabobo Carabobo 2-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
0-1
AWAY Carabobo
0.40 xG 0.33
67% Ball Possession 33%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
521 Passes 226
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carabobo squeezed past Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 29%) promised a tight game; Carabobo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 67% of the ball to Carabobo's 33%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.40 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carabobo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.83 for Carabobo.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo?

Deportivo La Guaira 0-1 Carabobo in the Venezuela - Premier League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 40%, draw 30%, Carabobo 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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