Peterborough United 0-1 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.4
2-3 Goals
41%
2.01
4-5 Goals
22%
2.72
6+ Goals
14%
6.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
17%
3.99
X/2
9%
11.6
X/X
11%
7.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.7
2/2
10%
7.99
2/X
5%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.95/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.47
+33% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
24.9 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Burton Albion
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.47 xG 1.44
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
458 Passes 188
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-3 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
25.11.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-0 HT 2-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
14.03.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-5 HT 1-3 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
08.10.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.03.2021 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
27.10.2020 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
0-1
AWAY Burton Albion
0.38 xG 0.74
71% Ball Possession 29%
6 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
510 Passes 179
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion nicked a narrow win over Peterborough United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Peterborough United at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 71% of the ball to Burton Albion's 29%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.38 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Peterborough United and 1.33 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Burton Albion?

Peterborough United 0-1 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 52%, draw 23%, Burton Albion 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Peterborough United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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