Burton Albion 1-3 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
46%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
8.28
1/2
8%
21.85
1/X
7%
16.4
X/1
9%
10.85
X/2
18%
3.83
X/X
11%
5.75
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
1.98
2/X
8%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
19%
+9.6pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
46%
Away Win
59%
-13.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.03/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/1.04
-3% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +15%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
198 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 76%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
15.9 Crosses 17.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Peterborough United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.57 xG 2.41
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
232 Passes 442
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-0 HT 2-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
14.03.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-5 HT 1-3 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
08.10.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-1 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.03.2021 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
27.10.2020 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-2 HT 1-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
08.09.2020 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-3 HT 2-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-3
AWAY Peterborough United
1.16 xG 1.31
26% Ball Possession 74%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
139 Passes 601
62% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 40
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United beat Burton Albion 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 26% of the ball to Peterborough United's 74%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.16 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Burton Albion and 2.67 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Peterborough United?

Burton Albion 1-3 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 28%, draw 26%, Peterborough United 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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