Oxford United 2-1 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 32% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.09
X/2
10%
7.84
X/X
12%
4.35
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
10%
6.38
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oxford United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.41/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.45
+8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
318 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 201 · 62%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.9 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oxford United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.93
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
321 Passes 174
74% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.11.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
25.04.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 4-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
27.08.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
01.01.2022 Oxford United Oxford United 1-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
18.09.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN1
08.01.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oxford United
2-1
AWAY Cheltenham Town
0.59 xG 0.45
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
361 Passes 247
74% Pass Accuracy 63%
17 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Oxford United vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oxford United nicked a narrow win over Cheltenham Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Oxford United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oxford United had 55% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 45%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.59 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oxford United and 1.00 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Oxford United vs Cheltenham Town?

Oxford United 2-1 Cheltenham Town in the England - 1st Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oxford United vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Oxford United 48%, draw 26%, Cheltenham Town 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oxford United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oxford United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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