Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 29%
-67% / -67% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.00/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/2.20
-47% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
6.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.57 xG 1.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
447 Passes 263
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.07.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
10.03.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
03.09.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.03.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.08.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
13.02.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
4-3
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin squeezed past Zaglebie Lubin 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 59% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 41%, shots finished 24-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Cup on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 41%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Lubin 34%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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