05/01/2024
·
15:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-1
Karlsruher SC vs Ulm 1846 Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.77
— our 25% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
28%
Draw
22%
30%
Away Win
25%
51%
Under 2.5
33%
49%
Over 2.5
67%
48%
BTTS Yes
64%
52%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Karlsruher SC v Ulm 1846 — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Karlsruher SC
EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ulm 1846
EU Bookmakers 29%
-51% /
-51%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-72%
/
-36%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
15
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
395 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
307 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.0
Yellow Cards
–
Karlsruher SC vs Ulm 1846 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Karlsruher SC
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Ulm 1846
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
56%
Ball Possession
44%
12
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
4
3
Corners
6
2
Yellow Cards
0
The Meetings
16.11.2023
Karlsruher SC
0-2
HT 0-0
Ulm 1846
HAZ
0-2
HT 0-0
Ulm 1846
HAZ
POST-MATCH
Karlsruher SC vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Karlsruher SC cruised past Ulm 1846 4-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karlsruher SC as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of Karlsruher SC vs Ulm 1846?
Karlsruher SC 4-0 Ulm 1846 in the Friendlies on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Karlsruher SC vs Ulm 1846?
Before kick-off our model rated a Karlsruher SC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Karlsruher SC 43%, draw 28%, Ulm 1846 30%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karlsruher SC), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Karlsruher SC)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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HAZ
More Friendlies
5 Jan 2024