Monza 1-2 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Jan 2025

Monza
1-2 HT 1-1
Cagliari
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Monza vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.98
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.33
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.24
X/2
12%
6.59
X/X
9%
4.13
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
16%
4.64
2/X
12%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.2pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monza v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
0.94/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.42
-41% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.5 Crosses 22.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Monza vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Cagliari
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.88 xG 1.02
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 8
456 Passes 245
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Monza Monza 1-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.11.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
11.03.2001 Monza Monza 1-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
22.10.2000 Cagliari Cagliari 2-1 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTB

Monza 1-2 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-2
AWAY Cagliari
1.58 xG 0.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
311 Passes 259
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monza vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari edged past Monza 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cagliari found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monza had 53% of the ball to Cagliari's 47%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 1.58 to 0.85 — on chances, Monza could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Monza had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monza and 0.75 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Monza vs Cagliari?

Monza 1-2 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Monza 40%, draw 26%, Cagliari 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monza), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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