Sagrada Esperança 1-0 Djoliba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.33
Draw
25%
2.88
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.44
Over 2.5
36%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.91
2-3 Goals
34%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
6.2
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✓
28%
3.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
15.35
X/1
12%
4.72
X/2
11%
5.82
X/X
14%
3.34
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
14%
5.01
2/X
7%
15.6
Value flag · 1/1 at 3.74 — our 28% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+4.9pp
25%
Draw
31%
-6.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
66%
-1.9pp
36%
Over 2.5
34%
+1.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.9pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagrada Esperança EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Djoliba EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
281 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagrada Esperança
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Djoliba
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.20 xG 1.14
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
152 Passes 280
58% Pass Accuracy 71%
8 Box Touches 21
7 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Djoliba Djoliba 0-0 HT 0-0 Sagrada Esperança Sagrada Esperança CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagrada Esperança
1-0
AWAY Djoliba
0.49 xG 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 7
202 Passes 336
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagrada Esperança vs Djoliba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagrada Esperança nicked a narrow win over Djoliba 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sagrada Esperança as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Sagrada Esperança had 40% of the ball to Djoliba's 60%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 0.49 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Djoliba.

What was the final score of Sagrada Esperança vs Djoliba?

Sagrada Esperança 1-0 Djoliba in the CAF Champions League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagrada Esperança vs Djoliba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagrada Esperança win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sagrada Esperança 44%, draw 25%, Djoliba 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sagrada Esperança), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sagrada Esperança) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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