ASEC 1-1 USM Alger — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Konfederasyon Cup, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.27
No
64%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
1.93
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
6.06
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-5.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.8pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ASEC EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Alger EU Bookmakers 46%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.60/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/0.91
+150% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
14.0 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ASEC
0W-1D-2L
AWAY USM Alger
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.41 xG 1.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
300 Passes 290
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.12.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 3-0 HT 2-0 ASEC CAFKK
17.05.2023 USM Alger USM Alger 2-0 HT 1-0 ASEC CAFKK
10.05.2023 ASEC 0-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CAFKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ASEC
1-1
AWAY USM Alger
1.11 xG 0.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
194 Passes 296
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Box Touches 4
21 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH ASEC vs USM Alger
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ASEC and USM Alger shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.

On the day, ASEC had 45% of the ball to USM Alger's 55%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 1.11 to 0.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, USM Alger led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for ASEC and 1.67 for USM Alger.

What was the final score of ASEC vs USM Alger?

ASEC 1-1 USM Alger in the CAF Konfederasyon Cup on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ASEC vs USM Alger?

Before kick-off our model rated an USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split ASEC 32%, draw 31%, USM Alger 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (USM Alger), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (USM Alger) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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