RC Strasbourg 3-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Jan 2025

RC Strasbourg
3-1 HT 1-1
Auxerre
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.22 — our 26% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.39
X/2
9%
8.76
X/X
14%
5.63
2/1
7%
21.7
2/2
10%
6.1
2/X
8%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+3.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RC Strasbourg v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RC Strasbourg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.81/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.60
+10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.1 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RC Strasbourg
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Auxerre
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 0.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 Passes 299
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
19.03.2023 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
27.08.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
20.03.2017 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR2
21.10.2016 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
23.08.2016 Auxerre Auxerre 2-0 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FRLK
04.01.2015 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FRK

RC Strasbourg 3-1 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RC Strasbourg
3-1
AWAY Auxerre
2.88 xG 1.38
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
477 Passes 276
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RC Strasbourg saw off Auxerre 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had RC Strasbourg as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, RC Strasbourg had 60% of the ball to Auxerre's 40%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.88 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for RC Strasbourg and 0.83 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?

RC Strasbourg 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a RC Strasbourg win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split RC Strasbourg 48%, draw 26%, Auxerre 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RC Strasbourg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RC Strasbourg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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