Marsilya 5-1 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.65
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
26%
3.14
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.58
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.0
X/1
19%
3.36
X/2
7%
18.8
X/X
12%
6.84
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
9%
16.05
2/X
6%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-17.7pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.0pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
2.10/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.75
-11% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +28%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
430 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
21.5 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Le Havre
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
2.19 xG 0.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
555 Passes 335
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.10.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 3-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
17.01.2009 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
23.08.2008 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.01.2006 Marsilya Marsilya 4-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FRK
05.02.2003 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
5-1
AWAY Le Havre
3.23 xG 0.45
70% Ball Possession 30%
15 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
862 Passes 329
94% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya cruised past Le Havre 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Marsilya had 70% of the ball to Le Havre's 30%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 3.23 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Marsilya and 0.17 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Le Havre?

Marsilya 5-1 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 53%, draw 25%, Le Havre 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
5 Jan 2025
17:00 Angers vs Brest Analysis →
17:00 RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre Analysis →
17:00 Lens vs Toulouse Analysis →