Lens 0-1 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 5 Jan 2025

Lens
0-1 HT 0-0
Toulouse
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lens vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.48
X/2
13%
7.74
X/X
11%
4.65
2/1
14%
25.0
2/2
14%
5.77
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
33%
Away Win
25%
+7.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lens v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.64/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.77
-12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.0 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lens vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.71 xG 0.91
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 8
335 Passes 339
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
24.09.2023 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.05.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
28.10.2022 Lens Lens 3-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.03.2015 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
24.10.2014 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-2 Lens Lens FR1

Lens 0-1 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
0-1
AWAY Toulouse
1.41 xG 2.03
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
438 Passes 215
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 22
38 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lens vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse nicked a narrow win over Lens 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lens had 66% of the ball to Toulouse's 34%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.41 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lens and 0.17 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Lens vs Toulouse?

Lens 0-1 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lens 43%, draw 23%, Toulouse 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lens) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
5 Jan 2025
17:00 Angers vs Brest Analysis →
17:00 RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre Analysis →
22:45 Marsilya vs Le Havre Analysis →