Paços De Ferreira 4-3 Academico Viseu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
22.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Academico Viseu EU Bookmakers 43%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +8%
1.34/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.42
-26% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.1 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Academico Viseu
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 1.43
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
234 Passes 386
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
06.11.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-0 HT 1-0 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
28.07.2018 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 3-2 HT 1-1 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
4-3
AWAY Academico Viseu
2.60 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 11
229 Passes 155
73% Pass Accuracy 61%
30 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Academico Viseu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira edged past Academico Viseu 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Academico Viseu at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 56% of the ball to Academico Viseu's 44%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 2.60 to 1.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paços De Ferreira's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.00 for Academico Viseu.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Academico Viseu?

Paços De Ferreira 4-3 Academico Viseu in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Academico Viseu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Academico Viseu win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 34%, draw 25%, Academico Viseu 41%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Academico Viseu), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Academico Viseu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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