İstanbulspor 4-0 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.76
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.15
Over 2.5
61%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.24
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
9.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.39
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
22%
4.32
X/2
7%
8.34
X/X
9%
5.72
2/1
5%
21.7
2/2
11%
5.87
2/X
4%
14.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
52%
+2.6pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
43%
-3.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
57%
+3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İstanbulspor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.89/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.15
+21% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
18.6 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İstanbulspor
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.12.2024 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 1-2 HT 1-1 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İstanbulspor
4-0
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
3.27 xG 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
24 Total Shots 11
13 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
395 Passes 373
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İstanbulspor ran out comfortable winners over Esenler Erokspor 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İstanbulspor as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (61%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, İstanbulspor had 51% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 49%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 3.27 to 1.50.

What was the final score of İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor?

İstanbulspor 4-0 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a İstanbulspor win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split İstanbulspor 55%, draw 21%, Esenler Erokspor 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İstanbulspor), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İstanbulspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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