Fenerbahçe 2-1 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
12%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.97
2-3 Goals
35%
2.17
4-5 Goals
29%
2.39
6+ Goals
19%
4.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1.25
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
34.5
X/1
16%
3.57
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
4%
12.55
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
4%
30.0
2/X
6%
34.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-13.0pp
19%
Draw
12%
+7.0pp
12%
Away Win
6%
+6.0pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 8%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.40/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.69
+9% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
426 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
35.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.5 Crosses 10.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Hatayspor
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.54 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
317 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
22.10.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-2 HT 3-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
27.12.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 4-0 HT 2-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
20.02.2022 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
26.09.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
02.02.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-1
AWAY Hatayspor
4.03 xG 0.54
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
571 Passes 319
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
52 Box Touches 8
36 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe squeezed past Hatayspor 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 62% of the ball to Hatayspor's 38%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 4.03 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.67 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?

Fenerbahçe 2-1 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 69%, draw 19%, Hatayspor 12%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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