Kasımpaşa 2-2 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.82
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.46 — our 25% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
13%
4.24
X/2
9%
10.1
X/X
15%
5.88
2/1
10%
21.3
2/2
13%
7.08
2/X
5%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 24%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.58/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.63
-20% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
23.8 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.51 xG 1.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
376 Passes 261
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
03.12.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 4-2 HT 3-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
01.10.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
03.04.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
08.02.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-2 HT 1-1 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TÜK
05.11.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
2-2
AWAY Gaziantep FK
2.17 xG 2.26
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
357 Passes 211
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 21
31 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa and Gaziantep FK shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kasımpaşa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 61% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 39%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.17 to 2.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.50 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?

Kasımpaşa 2-2 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 45%, draw 27%, Gaziantep FK 28%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kasımpaşa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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