Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Shams Azar Qazvin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 5 Feb 2026

📅05/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
39%
2.88
Away
18%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
1.36
Over 2.5
28%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.51
No
67%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
51%
1.84
2-3 Goals
31%
1.83
4-5 Goals
10%
6.89
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 1.84 — our 51% vs market 45.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
23%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.3pp
39%
Draw
31%
+8.1pp
18%
Away Win
22%
-3.9pp
72%
Under 2.5
70%
+2.2pp
28%
Over 2.5
30%
-2.2pp
33%
BTTS Yes
36%
-3.1pp
67%
BTTS No
64%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Shams Azar Qazvin EU Bookmakers 25%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.75/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.24/0.69
+54% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +57%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Shams Azar Qazvin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
18.01.2026 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin 0-0 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
26.09.2025 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin 1-1 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
19.08.2025 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-1 HT 1-0 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin IRAN
06.02.2025 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 HT 0-0 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin IRAN
20.01.2025 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 0-1 HT 0-0 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin IRAN
13.09.2024 Shams Azar Qazvin Shams Azar Qazvin 2-2 HT 1-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
POST-MATCH Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esteghlal Khuzestan nicked a narrow win over Shams Azar Qazvin 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 43% / 39% / 18% — and on the day Esteghlal Khuzestan made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.83 for Shams Azar Qazvin.

What was the final score of Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin?

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Shams Azar Qazvin in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shams Azar Qazvin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esteghlal Khuzestan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Esteghlal Khuzestan 43%, draw 39%, Shams Azar Qazvin 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esteghlal Khuzestan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Esteghlal Khuzestan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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