Farnborough 1-0 Welling United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.6pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Welling United EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
2.04/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.56
+12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Welling United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2023 Welling United Welling United 2-2 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
07.03.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 0-0 HT 0-0 Welling United Welling United İCON
06.12.2022 Welling United Welling United 1-2 HT 0-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farnborough
1-0
AWAY Welling United
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Welling United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough nicked a narrow win over Welling United 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Farnborough as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farnborough had 53% of the ball to Welling United's 47%, shots finished 10-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farnborough had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Farnborough and 1.00 for Welling United.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Welling United?

Farnborough 1-0 Welling United in the England - Conference on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Welling United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 45%, draw 28%, Welling United 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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