Fortaleza CEIF 1-5 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
41%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.64
Over 2.5
34%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
24%
+5.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-7.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
57%
+8.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
43%
-8.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.8pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 53%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
0.64/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.99
-32% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -13%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
26.7 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.73 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
296 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.04.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
14.04.2014 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 2-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1-5
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.42 xG 1.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
308 Passes 441
85% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional ran out comfortable winners over Fortaleza CEIF 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 42% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 58%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.42 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fortaleza CEIF and 2.00 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional?

Fortaleza CEIF 1-5 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 29%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 41%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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