Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 45%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
0.58/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.02
-8% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -4%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
253 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
11.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
15.7 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.64 xG 1.29
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
224 Passes 404
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 30
7 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-2 HT 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
14.04.2014 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 2-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
0-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.81 xG 0.73
72% Ball Possession 28%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 1
438 Passes 137
89% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 8
45 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Fortaleza CEIF 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (31% / 30% / 39%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 72% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 28%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.81 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Fortaleza CEIF and 2.50 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional?

Fortaleza CEIF 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 31%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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