Petrojet 2-1 Ghazl El Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.39
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.43
6+ Goals
8%
24.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.39 — our 37% vs market 33.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.6pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Petrojet EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
0.96/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.97
-33% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 71%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
22.2 Crosses 15.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Petrojet
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.03.2024 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 2-2 HT 1-2 Petrojet Petrojet MSR2P
15.01.2024 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 HT 0-1 Petrojet Petrojet MSR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Petrojet
2-1
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
3.12 xG 1.59
42% Ball Possession 58%
25 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
186 Passes 293
62% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Petrojet vs Ghazl El Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Petrojet nicked a narrow win over Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Petrojet made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Petrojet had 42% of the ball to Ghazl El Mehalla's 58%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 3.12 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Petrojet's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Petrojet and 1.50 for Ghazl El Mehalla.

What was the final score of Petrojet vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Petrojet 2-1 Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Petrojet vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Petrojet win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Petrojet 39%, draw 29%, Ghazl El Mehalla 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Petrojet) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Petrojet) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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