Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derry City v Dundalk — Team-Based Signals
Derry City vs Dundalk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-3
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
3-0
HT 1-0
Dundalk
İRL
2-2
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
0-0
HT 0-0
Dundalk
İRL
0-1
HT 0-1
Dundalk
İRL
1-1
HT 0-1
Derry City
İRL
Derry City 4-1 Dundalk — Actual Match Statistics
Derry City swept aside Dundalk 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Derry City had 51% of the ball to Dundalk's 49%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.67 to 0.59.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Derry City and 0.83 for Dundalk.
What was the final score of Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City 4-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Derry City 46%, draw 30%, Dundalk 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.