Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.85
6+ Goals
11%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 30% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.83
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
20%
4.66
X/2
12%
7.41
X/X
12%
4.41
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
10%
5.79
2/X
10%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.13/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.32
-40% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
259 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 65%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
21.2 Crosses 15.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Crawley Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.80 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
224 Passes 253
64% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.02.2025 Crawley Town Crawley Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
30.12.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 3-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
01.10.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
05.02.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
18.01.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 2-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
01.05.2021 Stevenage Stevenage 3-3 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
3-1
AWAY Crawley Town
0.87 xG 0.46
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
133 Passes 439
58% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage saw off Crawley Town 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stevenage as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stevenage had 31% of the ball to Crawley Town's 69%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.87 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stevenage had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Stevenage and 1.83 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Crawley Town?

Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 43%, draw 29%, Crawley Town 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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