Peterborough United 0-4 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.68
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.8
X/2
8%
7.54
X/X
11%
5.35
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
14%
5.36
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.3pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.9pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +18%
1.91/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.03
+30% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
436 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.1 Crosses 16.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Northampton Town
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.05 xG 0.45
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
441 Passes 228
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNTK
09.12.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
05.03.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 5-1 HT 3-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.08.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
16.04.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-1 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
10.10.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
0-4
AWAY Northampton Town
0.36 xG 3.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 13
4 Corners 7
317 Passes 260
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town cruised past Peterborough United 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Northampton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 53% of the ball to Northampton Town's 47%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 0.36 to 3.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Peterborough United and 0.83 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Northampton Town?

Peterborough United 0-4 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 40%, draw 30%, Northampton Town 31%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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