Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

Wrexham
3-0 HT 0-0
Burton Albion
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Wrexham vs Burton Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.78
6+ Goals
10%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 30% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.96
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.85
X/1
11%
3.87
X/2 EV+ ✗
14%
11.9
X/X
15%
5.09
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
9%
10.65
2/X
5%
19.3
Value flag · X/2 at 11.9 — our 14% vs market 5.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
61%
-14.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+12.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wrexham v Burton Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wrexham EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 19%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +33%
1.43/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.45
+18% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 66%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.1 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Wrexham vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wrexham
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Burton Albion
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 0.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
300 Passes 366
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 0-1 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
05.12.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 2-3 HT 1-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNTK
17.02.2009 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-1 Wrexham Wrexham İBSL
02.09.2008 Wrexham Wrexham 0-1 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İBSL

Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wrexham
3-0
AWAY Burton Albion
2.61 xG 0.37
71% Ball Possession 29%
23 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
458 Passes 136
86% Pass Accuracy 61%
35 Box Touches 7
35 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wrexham vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham ran out comfortable winners over Burton Albion 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Wrexham as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Wrexham had 71% of the ball to Burton Albion's 29%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 2.61 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wrexham and 1.50 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Wrexham vs Burton Albion?

Wrexham 3-0 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wrexham vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wrexham 46%, draw 25%, Burton Albion 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
5 Apr 2025
14:30 Reading vs Wycombe Wanderers Analysis →
17:00 Peterborough United vs Northampton Town Analysis →
17:00 Rotherham United vs Blackpool Analysis →
17:00 Exeter City vs Stockport County Analysis →
17:00 Huddersfield Town vs Mansfield Town Analysis →
17:00 Stevenage vs Crawley Town Analysis →