Crawley Town 3-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 11 Feb 2025

📅11/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 33% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.77
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
11%
6.39
X/2
14%
4.88
X/X
13%
4.43
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.15
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
0.66/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.20
-14% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +29%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
206 · 61% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 70%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
15.8 Crosses 17.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Stevenage
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.19 xG 1.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
269 Passes 212
67% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 3-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
01.10.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
05.02.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
18.01.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 2-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
01.05.2021 Stevenage Stevenage 3-3 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
16.02.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-1
AWAY Stevenage
2.56 xG 1.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
194 Passes 227
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town beat Stevenage 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Crawley Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crawley Town had 45% of the ball to Stevenage's 55%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.56 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stevenage led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Crawley Town and 2.17 for Stevenage.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Stevenage?

Crawley Town 3-1 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 33%, draw 28%, Stevenage 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stevenage) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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