Birmingham 4-0 Cambridge United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 11 Feb 2025

📅11/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.29
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.0
X/1
18%
3.6
X/2
5%
20.35
X/X
11%
7.35
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
9%
19.0
2/X
8%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
73%
-16.8pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.4pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 12%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.84/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.51
-23% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
389 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 67%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
27.3 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Cambridge United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.38 xG 0.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
507 Passes 193
81% Pass Accuracy 62%
15 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 6
05.09.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İNLK
12.08.2014 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
4-0
AWAY Cambridge United
3.72 xG 0.08
76% Ball Possession 24%
24 Total Shots 2
12 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 3
611 Passes 127
87% Pass Accuracy 58%
36 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Cambridge United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham ran out comfortable winners over Cambridge United 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Birmingham had 76% of the ball to Cambridge United's 24%, shots finished 24-2, expected goals 3.72 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cambridge United led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Birmingham and 1.00 for Cambridge United.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Cambridge United?

Birmingham 4-0 Cambridge United in the England - 1st Division on 11/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Cambridge United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 56%, draw 25%, Cambridge United 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ BTTS No
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