Hanwell Town 2-1 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
52%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.23
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
66%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.53
No
39%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+1.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
52%
Away Win
52%
+0.9pp
34%
Under 2.5
41%
-6.6pp
66%
Over 2.5
59%
+6.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
+0.2pp
39%
BTTS No
39%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hanwell Town EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 56%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.47/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/1.69
+12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / -29%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hanwell Town
0W-0D-5L
AWAY Merthyr Town
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town İNGNLP
16.12.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 4-0 HT 1-0 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town İNGNLP
19.08.2023 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town 1-4 HT 0-3 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
01.04.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-1 HT 3-1 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town İNGNLP
08.11.2022 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Hanwell Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hanwell Town nicked a narrow win over Merthyr Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Merthyr Town at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Hanwell Town and 3.00 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Hanwell Town vs Merthyr Town?

Hanwell Town 2-1 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hanwell Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hanwell Town 25%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 52%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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