Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.36
6+ Goals
13%
12.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.36 — our 26% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.59
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
15%
5.67
X/2
15%
6.12
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
14%
4.04
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.62/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.25
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
17.2 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.46
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
270 Passes 601
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
15.12.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-3 HT 0-2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
03.02.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 4-1 HT 3-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
21.12.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-1 HT 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
15.03.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
11.02.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-1 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
14.01.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
2-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
0.57 xG 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
245 Passes 462
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace squeezed past Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Crystal Palace made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 38% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 62%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.57 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Brighton & Hove Albion.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.50 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 38%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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