Everton vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Everton v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals
Everton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
4-0
HT 2-0
Everton
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
2-0
HT 2-0
Everton
HAZ
Everton 1-1 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics
Everton and Arsenal shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Everton had 30% of the ball to Arsenal's 70%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 1.09 to 1.79.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Everton and 1.50 for Arsenal.
What was the final score of Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton 1-1 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Everton vs Arsenal?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Everton 30%, draw 27%, Arsenal 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No went the other way.