Arsenal vs Everton Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Everton — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Everton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
4-0
HT 2-0
Everton
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
2-0
HT 2-0
Everton
HAZ
5-1
HT 2-1
Everton
İNP
2-1
HT 0-1
Arsenal
İNP
Arsenal 2-1 Everton — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Everton 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Arsenal had 69% of the ball to Everton's 31%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 3.01 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Everton.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal 2-1 Everton in the England - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Everton?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 67%, draw 18%, Everton 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.