Arsenal 2-1 Everton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.28
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
15%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.89
Over 2.5
63%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.73
2-3 Goals
38%
2.15
4-5 Goals
29%
2.49
6+ Goals
15%
5.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
24.85
X/1 EV+ ✓
29%
3.58
X/2
5%
22.7
X/X
5%
9.9
2/1
8%
20.45
2/2
6%
15.8
2/X
8%
23.6
Value flag · X/1 at 3.58 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
74%
-7.0pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.3pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+4.7pp
37%
Under 2.5
31%
+6.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
69%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Everton EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
2.27/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.25
+14% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
466 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
43.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.5 Crosses 13.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Everton
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.77 xG 0.91
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
568 Passes 208
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Everton Everton 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
01.03.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 4-0 HT 2-0 Everton Everton İNP
04.02.2023 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
17.07.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 2-0 Everton Everton HAZ
22.05.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 5-1 HT 2-1 Everton Everton İNP
06.12.2021 Everton Everton 2-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-1
AWAY Everton
3.01 xG 0.61
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
583 Passes 215
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
65 Box Touches 7
28 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Everton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Everton 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 69% of the ball to Everton's 31%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 3.01 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Arsenal and 0.67 for Everton.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Everton?

Arsenal 2-1 Everton in the England - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Everton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 67%, draw 18%, Everton 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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