Dandenong Thunder 5-1 Port Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.4pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 19%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
2.61/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.60
+15% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
437 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.5 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong Thunder
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Port Melbourne
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
416 Passes 274
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.07.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 3-1 HT 2-0 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
13.04.2024 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
24.06.2023 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
25.03.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-6 HT 1-2 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
18.06.2022 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-2 HT 0-2 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
19.03.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong Thunder vs Port Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong Thunder cruised past Port Melbourne 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dandenong Thunder as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Port Melbourne led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dandenong Thunder and 2.17 for Port Melbourne.

What was the final score of Dandenong Thunder vs Port Melbourne?

Dandenong Thunder 5-1 Port Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong Thunder vs Port Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dandenong Thunder win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Dandenong Thunder 58%, draw 24%, Port Melbourne 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dandenong Thunder), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dandenong Thunder) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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