Lommel United 2-0 KRC Genk II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.29
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.19 — our 29% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.6pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY KRC Genk II EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.37/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.62
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
16.8 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lommel United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY KRC Genk II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 1.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
365 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2024 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II 0-4 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
25.02.2024 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II 1-1 HT 0-0 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
01.12.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 0-1 HT 0-1 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II BEL2
21.04.2023 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II 2-3 HT 1-2 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
12.03.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 2-0 HT 0-0 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II BEL2
18.11.2022 Lommel United Lommel United 2-1 HT 1-0 KRC Genk II KRC Genk II BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
2-0
AWAY KRC Genk II
2.27 xG 0.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
384 Passes 333
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 30
6 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs KRC Genk II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United saw off KRC Genk II 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lommel United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lommel United had 53% of the ball to KRC Genk II's 47%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.27 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lommel United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lommel United and 0.83 for KRC Genk II.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?

Lommel United 2-0 KRC Genk II in the Belgium - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs KRC Genk II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 44%, draw 22%, KRC Genk II 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lommel United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lommel United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL2 More Belgium - 1st Division
5 Apr 2025
17:00 RSC Anderlecht II vs Lokeren-Temse Analysis →
21:00 Club Brugge II vs RFC Liege Analysis →