Vitebsk 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.8
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 27%
-15% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +18%
0.95/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.72
-37% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +82%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitebsk
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-4 HT 0-3 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
24.05.2024 Vitebsk Vitebsk 2-0 HT 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
09.02.2018 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-5 HT 0-2 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk HAZ
16.08.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
26.04.2015 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitebsk
2-0
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk got the better of Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Vitebsk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vitebsk had 38% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 62%, shots finished 7-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Naftan Novopolotsk led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Vitebsk and 2.20 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Vitebsk 2-0 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vitebsk 40%, draw 30%, Naftan Novopolotsk 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitebsk), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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