Cherno More Varna 1-1 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-4.2pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.6pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.5pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
0.88/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.14
-29% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.10.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
31.03.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and Botev Plovdiv shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 62% of the ball to Botev Plovdiv's 38%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.33 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 48%, draw 22%, Botev Plovdiv 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
5 Apr 2025
19:00 Botev Vratsa vs CSKA Sofia Analysis →